Here's how much Black Widow cost to make, and what it likely needs to earn to turn a profit. Originally scheduled for release in May 2020, Black Widow was delayed multiple times due to the coronavirus pandemic. It's finally gearing up for its premiere, as it will open in theaters and stream on Disney+ simultaneously. Even though viewers will be able to order the movie at home, it's widely expected Black Widow will break pandemic era box office records. The latest opening weekend projections have it earning between $80-90 million in its first three days, topping F9's current mark.
One of the reasons why Marvel was so keen on holding Black Widow for a theatrical release (rather than putting it on VOD last year) is the fact tentpole projects like MCU blockbusters are largely dependent on ticket sales in order to recoup their costs. Even Marvel movies are are more moderately budgeted than something like Avengers: Endgame are expensive undertakings, and Black Widow is no different. It's in a position where it needs a healthy theatrical run to become profitable.
Black Widow's reported production budget is in excess of $200 million, equalling the budgets of MCU Phase 3 movies Black Panther and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2. It actually cost more to make than a majority of the non-Avengers films in Phase 3. The lone exception is Captain America: Civil War ($230 million), which boasted an Avengers-level ensemble cast. Black Widow's $200 million budget does not account for marketing costs.
Going by the general rule of thumb (production budget x 2 = break even point), Black Widow would need to gross about $400 million worldwide to make its money back. However, in this case, it's likely a bit more. Black Widow already had a very visible marketing campaign prior to the pandemic, complete with a pricey Super Bowl TV spot. It's unknown how much money exactly Disney spent on advertising, but the numerous delays probably spiked the costs a bit, since they essentially had to put together multiple campaigns. There obviously wasn't another Black Widow Super Bowl commercial this year, but Disney still had to do their part to raise awareness and generate hype for the movie, especially after it was pushed back so many times. It wouldn't be surprising if Black Widow's break even point was closer to $500 million.
Even though the box office hasn't fully returned to a pre-pandemic normal, there's still a good chance Black Widow can hit that figure. F9 currently stands at $500.5 million worldwide, and since Black Widow is projected to earn more, it likely won't have trouble reaching $500 million. It will be interesting to see how high its box office numbers are by the end of its run. The pandemic is still a concern for some viewers, and not everyone feels safe going back to the theater yet. That will impact Black Widow's commercial prospects. However, Disney+ could help offset the difference. Subscribers have to pay $29.99 to watch the movie from home, and that's money Disney doesn't have to split with theater owners. Combining the revenue streams should allow Black Widow to turn a profit.
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